{"id":16915,"date":"2026-07-08T10:12:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T03:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/?p=16915"},"modified":"2026-07-08T10:27:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T03:27:54","slug":"vietnam-financial-market-mid26-liquidity-pressure-and-structural-issues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/vietnam-financial-market-mid26-liquidity-pressure-and-structural-issues\/","title":{"rendered":"VIETNAM\u2019S FINANCIAL MARKET MID-2026: LIQUIDITY PRESSURE AND STRUCTURAL ISSUES"},"content":{"rendered":"

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VIETNAM\u2019S FINANCIAL MARKET MID-2026: LIQUIDITY PRESSURE AND STRUCTURAL ISSUES<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

The Government has recently reaffirmed its ambitious economic growth target of 10% or higher for 2026. To achieve this, the updated management plan under Resolution No. 168\/NQ-CP, dated June 27, 2026, requires GDP growth to reach around 11.9% in the second half of the year. Within this framework, the finance, banking, and insurance sector has been tasked with a minimum growth target of 14%.<\/p>\n

Vietnam\u2019s financial market entered mid-2026 amid a macroeconomic backdrop shared between strong growth drivers and structural barriers. The mismatch between credit growth and deposit growth stands out as one of the most prominent macroeconomic challenges for the Vietnamese financial system. This issue does not merely reflect a temporary liquidity state within the banking sector; it is deeply rooted in real interest rates, inflation expectations, and monetary policy directions for the upcoming economic cycle.<\/p>\n

The Gap Between Credit and Deposit Growth <\/strong><\/h1>\n
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Source: FiinPro, SBV, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Industry statistics show a sharp divide in banking liquidity. By late April 2026, total outstanding loans across the system rose 18.2% year-on-year to roughly 19.45 quadrillion VND. Meanwhile, deposit growth across the sector only hit 10.8% year-on-year. This imbalance leaves a gap of around 2.6 quadrillion VND between loans and deposits. This has pushed the system’s pure LDR up to 116%, well above the 106% seen at the start of 2025, straining banks’ liquidity cushions and signaling tighter liquidity ahead.<\/p>\n

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Source: FiinPro, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The gap between credit and deposit over total credit has reached a record size of -14%, bringing an end to a 10-year period of excess liquidity. This is a negative imbalance, signaling that the market will inevitably trend back to its historical average to find balance again. The shift to close this gap and return to 0% is expected to come from a combination of three main factors: (1) slower credit growth, (2) higher savings rates, and (3) faster public investment spending.<\/p>\n

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Source: FiinPro, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Drivers of the Mismatch Between Credit and Deposit Growth<\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0 1. Booming Capital Demand Supporting the New Growth Cycle<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Vietnam\u2019s economy has started a new 5-year growth cycle, creating huge investment needs for transport infrastructure, energy, and digital transformation. In 2026, total investment demand across society is estimated at about 5.1 quadrillion VND, with bank credit supplying 1.8 quadrillion VND (35%). The 1.1 quadrillion VND public investment plan for 2026 is pushing businesses in construction, materials, and logistics to take out loans for their projects. Because the capital market (stocks and corporate bonds) is not deep enough to provide long-term funding, banks still carry the burden of supplying 65% to 70% of the economy’s total capital. This has pushed outstanding loans up very quickly.<\/p>\n

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Source: NSO, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0 2. Structural Maturity Mismatch in the Banking System<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n

The liquidity gap is growing because of how funding is structured in Vietnam: around 80% to 90% of total deposits have short maturities of less than 12 months. Meanwhile, loans needed by businesses and the economy are mostly medium and long-term (making up 50% of all loans) to fund infrastructure, real estate, and factories with long payback periods. This gap in timeframes puts heavy pressure on banks. When long-term lending speeds up, banks rapidly hit their regulatory safety caps and are forced to compete aggressively to lock in new deposits.<\/p>\n

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Source: FiinPro, SBV, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Circular 25\/2026\/TT-NHNN, implemented on July 1, 2026, is the most direct move yet to solve this timeframe gap. It raises the ceiling on short-term deposits used for medium-to-long-term lending from 30% to 40% and allows a more flexible LDR calculation by counting 20% of State Treasury deposits. This decision frees up around 1.15 quadrillion VND in long-term lending space and eases the race for deposit rates, even if it means trading off higher liquidity risks in the short term. The fast rollout of Circular 25 shows the Government’s strong commitment to push past technical limits and prioritize funding for major infrastructure projects. It also highlights close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, alongside a push for banks to raise capital and strengthen their cushions for the new growth cycle.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 3. <\/strong>Money Shifting to Other Asset Channels and the Impact of Inflation<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n

Even though savings rates at commercial banks rose again in the first half of 2026\u2014with several private banks offering over 7% per year for 12-month deposits\u2014banks still had to compete hard for cash. A strong recovery and high speculation in the stock and property markets attracted a lot of idle cash from people, keeping this money trapped in these markets rather than flowing back into banks. At the same time, inflation pressures driven by higher fuel and material costs cut directly into the savings ability of both companies and families, slowing the growth of new deposits.<\/p>\n

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Source: Banks, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0 4. <\/strong>High Budget Surplus and Slow Public Spending<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n

A technical issue that heavily impacts the system’s liquidity is the gap between government income and spending. During the first five months of 2026, the State budget saw a record surplus of 495 trillion VND because revenues jumped 15.4% while spending only grew 3.3%. Public investment disbursement in the first half of the year hit just 20% of the target. This slow spending leaves a massive amount of State Treasury deposits stuck in the central bank and big state-owned commercial banks. As a result, this money cannot flow into the real economy to create secondary deposits for private businesses.<\/p>\n

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Source: MoF, NSO, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Investment Implications<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Given the high GDP growth goals and limited space to loosen monetary policy, the focus for driving growth is moving to fiscal policy. This means capital markets must do more heavy lifting to raise and distribute long-term funds. Banks are still dealing with short-term, cyclical strains\u2014especially when it comes to cash flow and balancing their funds. This situation shows that liquidity is tightening because loans are growing fast to fuel the economy, while new deposits are lagging behind. A similar pattern was seen during the liquidity crunch back in 2010. When lending outpaces savings growth, banks have to fight harder to attract deposits. This is the main reason why deposit interest rates jumped so sharply in the first half of the year, marking the biggest increase in three recent years.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 1. <\/strong>Unlocking Capital Flows via Fiscal Policy and Public Investment<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n

To address the current liquidity constraints, the Government and the Ministry of Finance need to accelerate the pace of public investment disbursement in the second half of 2026. Fast-tracking the disbursement of the remaining capital will act as a lever to trigger the circulation of funds from the State Treasury to the private sector. As funds are disbursed to contractors and suppliers, this capital will immediately transform into corporate demand and time deposits at commercial banks. This will provide a pool of cheap and stable liquidity, helping to naturally lower the system-wide LDR without the need for administrative interventions.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 2. <\/em><\/strong>Capital-Raising Trend to Meet Capital Adequacy Standards<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n

To comply with international Basel II and Basel III standards amid rapid credit expansion, listed banks are projected to raise a record amount of equity capital\u2014up to approximately 128 trillion VND in 2026. This is over 7 times the issuance volume of the previous year and 71.6% higher than the recent 5-year average.<\/p>\n

Without increasing equity capital, banks’ Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) will severely deteriorate as risk-weighted assets grow. This would eliminate any room for credit expansion, regardless of how abundant a bank’s liquidity might be.<\/p>\n

Vo Hoang Long – Investment Department, PHFM<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

VIETNAM\u2019S FINANCIAL MARKET MID-2026: LIQUIDITY PRESSURE…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":16933,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[103,107],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16915"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16915"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16915\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16944,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16915\/revisions\/16944"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16933"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}