{"id":7465,"date":"2022-11-03T15:06:53","date_gmt":"2022-11-03T08:06:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/?p=7465"},"modified":"2023-01-30T15:17:15","modified_gmt":"2023-01-30T08:17:15","slug":"tight-liquidity-a-hinder-to-market-rebound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/tight-liquidity-a-hinder-to-market-rebound\/","title":{"rendered":"THANH KHO\u1ea2N H\u1ea0N CH\u1ebe – R\u00c0O C\u1ea2N CHO S\u1ef0 PH\u1ee4C H\u1ed2I C\u1ee6A TH\u1eca TR\u01af\u1edcNG"},"content":{"rendered":"

Thanh kho\u1ea3n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/span><\/h1>\n

V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 22\/09 v\u00e0 24\/10, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc Vi\u1ec7t Nam (NHNN) \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh th\u00eam 100 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n. Sau hai \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u1ec3 tr\u00ean, m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ed1i \u0111a \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi kh\u00f4ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n d\u01b0\u1edbi 1 th\u00e1ng l\u00e0 1,0%\/n\u0103m, t\u0103ng 50 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n; m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ed1i \u0111a \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n t\u1eeb 1 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ebfn d\u01b0\u1edbi 6 th\u00e1ng l\u00e0 6,0%\/n\u0103m; ri\u00eang Qu\u1ef9 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n v\u00e0 T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh vi m\u00f4 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ed1i \u0111a l\u00e0 6,5%\/n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

(Ngu\u1ed3n: SBV, PHS, PHFM t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p)<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n trong v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng qua tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng do v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 thanh kho\u1ea3n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/p>\n

Trong n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u 2022, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t 16.8% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3, trong khi \u0111\u00f3, ngu\u1ed3n cung ti\u1ec1n M2 ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 9.97%. PHFM \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh cung ti\u1ec1n M2 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m 1% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ea1t 11% t\u00ednh t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2022. V\u1edbi nh\u1eefng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn tr\u00ean, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 g\u1eb7p v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng thanh kho\u1ea3n trong v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng v\u1eeba qua.<\/p>\n


\n\"\"(*): D\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh cho c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 (seasonal factors)<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

(Ngu\u1ed3n: FiinPro, PHS, PHFM t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p)<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng Dollar m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 hai r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh<\/span><\/h1>\n

Trong n\u0103m 2022, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u1ef9 li\u00ean bang (Fed Fund Rate) t\u1eeb 3% l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 3.25%. \u1ee6y ban Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng M\u1edf li\u00ean bang (FOMC) cho bi\u1ebft t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gia t\u0103ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u201cm\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd\u201d, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ea5p, v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u201ct\u0103ng cao\u201d l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u00fd do ch\u00ednh cho \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

(Ngu\u1ed3n: Bloomberg, PHS, PHFM t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p)<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng VND, NHNN \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1n m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn USD, g\u1ea7n 25 – 27 t\u1ef7 USD t\u1eeb ngu\u1ed3n d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i (t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 600 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng) khi\u1ebfn ngu\u1ed3n cung ti\u1ec1n M2 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

(Ngu\u1ed3n: SBV, PHS, PHFM t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p)<\/p>\n

B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p vi\u1ec7c NHNN b\u00e1n USD trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1eb1m h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3ng, VND \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n 5% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb so v\u1edbi USD. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cung ti\u1ec1n ch\u1eadm v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c mi\u1ec5n thu\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m d\u1ea7u trong th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 hai tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t nguy c\u01a1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

(Ngu\u1ed3n: FOMC, St. Louis Fed, PHFM t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p)<\/p>\n

D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Fed Fund rate cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2023. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean VND s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng khi l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u1ebft th\u00fac v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2023. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng s\u1eafp t\u1edbi v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n nay khi t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 Nga v\u00e0 Ukraine v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 h\u1ed3i k\u1ebft.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

(Ngu\u1ed3n: SBV, PHS, PHFM t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p)<\/p>\n

D\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, do \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a<\/span><\/h1>\n

Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf, m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c gi\u1eef t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf m\u1ee9c h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a NHNN cho n\u0103m 2022 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c 14%. Trong \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 11% trong 9 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2022. Trong qu\u00fd 4 n\u0103m 22, d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba v\u1eabn c\u00f2n 4 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng 1 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n nay s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a. Trong \u0111\u00f3, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc trong 9 th\u00e1ng 2022 \u0111\u1ea1t 334 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh l\u00e0 59%, trong khi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1eb7t ra cho c\u1ea3 n\u0103m l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 570 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng. C\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh s\u1ebd h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i trong xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m:<\/p>\n