{"id":6729,"date":"2022-04-17T10:45:53","date_gmt":"2022-04-17T03:45:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/?p=6729"},"modified":"2023-01-30T14:55:37","modified_gmt":"2023-01-30T07:55:37","slug":"effect-of-tapering-and-interest-rake-hike-on-vietnam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/effect-of-tapering-and-interest-rake-hike-on-vietnam\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng C\u1ee7a \u201cTaper tantrum\u201d V\u00e0 T\u0103ng L\u00e3i Su\u1ea5t L\u00ean Vi\u1ec7t Nam"},"content":{"rendered":"

1. \u201cTaper tantrum\u201d[1]<\/a><\/span> v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2022 <\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12-2020, FED cho bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 “\u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3” h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 2% v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, sau qu\u00e3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i duy tr\u00ec ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 khi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng, FED \u0111\u00e3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 s\u1ebd d\u1eebng ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Theo \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 12-2021, FED th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o s\u1ebd b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, FED s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 mua t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 12, v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 15 t\u1ef7 USD m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 s\u1ebd k\u1ebft th\u00fac v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6\/2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1eady, v\u1edbi n\u1ed7i lo l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 mang t\u00ednh t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tin r\u1eb1ng FED s\u1ebd t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 gi\u1ea3m mua t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u00ean m\u1ee9c\u00a030 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng, qua \u0111\u00f3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3\/2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng QE<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u0110\u00fang v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 15\/12\/2021, FED th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o s\u1ebd k\u1ebft th\u00fac ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh tr\u00ecnh n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 QE v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 03\/2022, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi cho bi\u1ebft s\u1ebd c\u00f3 ba \u0111\u1ee3t n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2022, khi c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t lo ng\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng M\u1ef9 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2022<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5\/2022, FOMC \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t li\u00ean bang th\u00eam 50 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n sau khi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2021, FED cho th\u1ea5y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng FED s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean 2.5% – 3% v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2022 v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t li\u00ean bang s\u1ebd t\u0103ng ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i trong n\u0103m 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nhanh ch\u00f3ng nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro li\u00ean quan t\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1ec1 v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 2% theo nh\u01b0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c FED.<\/span><\/p>\n

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2. B\u00e0i h\u1ecdc t\u1eeb qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh Taper tantrum l\u00ean c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 22\/05\/2013, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch FED b\u1ea5y gi\u1edd – \u00f4ng Ben Bernanke cho bi\u1ebft FED s\u1ebd s\u1edbm b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u1eebng qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh mua t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a \u1ea5n \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u00e0y c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 18\/12\/2013, FED ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 k\u1ebft th\u00fac qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3m s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu mua v\u00e0o h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng trong n\u0103m 2014, v\u00e0 s\u1ebd ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n k\u1ebft th\u00fac qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10 c\u00f9ng n\u0103m.<\/span><\/p>\n

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T\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 30\/04\/2013 \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 31\/12\/2013, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 1.5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c, bao g\u1ed3m th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ec1u leo d\u1ed1c theo \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Trong s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thu\u1ed9c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu t\u1ea1i Nga (+7.5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m), Indonesia (+3.3 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m) v\u00e0 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 (+2.5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m) \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t TPCP t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n t\u1eeb 0.5 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m.<\/span><\/p>\n

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C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e0 \u0111i l\u00ean c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 Nga, Indonesia v\u00e0 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 r\u1edbt gi\u00e1 r\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7. Trong khi \u1edf chi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t TPCP t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 \u0111\u1ec1u duy tr\u00ec t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia thu\u1ed9c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i<\/strong>? Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ho\u1ea3n lo\u1ea1n b\u00e1n th\u00e1o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, khi\u1ebfn cho l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt. Th\u00eam v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i c\u0169ng ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ngo\u1ea1i r\u00fat r\u00f2ng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 tr\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7, qua \u0111\u00f3 bu\u1ed9c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3i n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nh\u1eb1m b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, c\u00e1c NHTW c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c gia t\u0103ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i nh\u1eb1m ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro r\u00fat v\u1ed1n r\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i. C\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thanh kho\u1ea3n b\u1eb1ng ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00f3 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn v\u1edbi d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, qua \u0111\u00f3 gi\u00fap cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia thu\u1ed9c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n v\u00e3ng lai c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 thanh to\u00e1n c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ea1n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng ngo\u1ea1i t\u00ea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u0169ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia thu\u1ed9c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i cao v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7\/GDP th\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u1ed1t khi FED ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh Taper tantrum.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Theo quan s\u00e1t, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i\/GDP th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 20% \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ecbu nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro li\u00ean quan t\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 gia t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Th\u00e1i Lan v\u00e0 Nga ngo\u00e0i ra c\u00f2n ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9p<\/strong> t\u1edbi t\u1eeb r\u1ee7i ro b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb\/v\u0129 m\u00f4. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Nga, do ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecb c\u1ea5m v\u1eadn v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u1ee5t d\u1ed1c trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2014-2015, c\u1ea3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ecbu nh\u01b0ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c. C\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed3i v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a Th\u00e1i Lan, \u0111\u1ed3ng Bath m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 khi qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 hai qu\u1ed1c gia \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u1ea5t<\/strong>. Nh\u1edd v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f9ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao, c\u1ea3 hai qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u ghi nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong c\u1ea3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u1eabn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 kh\u1ea3 quan trong th\u1eddi gian Taper tantrum di\u1ec5n ra. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1eady, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 b\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ec7m t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1c quan h\u01a1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

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3. Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecbu nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng g\u00ec trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh Taper tantrum 2022?<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

Theo ch\u00fang t\u00f4i, Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang c\u00f3 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc tr\u01b0\u1edbc qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh Taper tantrum x\u1ea3y ra trong n\u0103m 2022 n\u00e0y. \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 gia t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m v\u1eeba qua nh\u1edd v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n FDI d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o, th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ki\u1ec1u h\u1ed1i kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3. Theo IMF, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00e1n m\u1ed1c 114 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi 32.6% GDP c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ee3 ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh quanh m\u1ee9c 38%, nh\u1edd v\u00e0o \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u0169ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh v\u0129 m\u00f4 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ee9ng v\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1edbc Taper tantrum di\u1ec5n ra trong n\u0103m 2022. Qua \u0111\u00f3, ti\u1ec1n \u0110\u1ed3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 nh\u1eb9 trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m FED tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh Taper tantrum, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t TPCP M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u00ecn chung kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi FED quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 05\/2022 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t TPCP c\u1ee7a VN \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng \u0111i l\u00ean.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 r\u00fat r\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c li\u00ean quan t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi tr\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ee1 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f9ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u0103ng h\u1ea1ng sang th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eabn l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u00e1ng v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111i l\u00ean trong c\u00e1c n\u0103m t\u1edbi.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb k\u1ef9 l\u01b0\u1ee1ng t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, ti\u1ec1n \u0110\u1ed3ng ch\u1ec9 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 nh\u1eb9 t\u1eeb 0.5% \u0111\u1ebfn 1.5%.\u00a0 Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t TPCP k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00e1n m\u1ed1c 4.5% trong k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 s\u1edf, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi t\u0103ng 2.1 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m trong n\u0103m 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n tr\u00ean quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i, nh\u00ecn chung c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gia t\u0103ng. V\u1edbi gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c 6% trong n\u0103m 2022 v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ni\u00eam y\u1ebft t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 15% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2021, qua \u0111\u00f3 VN-Index c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c 1,409 \u0111i\u1ec3m.<\/span><\/p>\n

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K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FED t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 2.5% v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i 2022<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n x\u1ea5u\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FED t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 3.0% v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i 2022<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u1ed1t\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 FED t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 2.0% v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i 2022<\/span><\/p>\n

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[1]<\/a> Taper tantrum: S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n FED quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1eebng vi\u1ec7c mua v\u00e0o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu khi\u1ebfn cho l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, qua \u0111\u00f3 g\u00e2y t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 l\u00ean c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i.<\/span>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1. \u201cTaper tantrum\u201d[1] v\u00e0 n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2022 V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12-2020, FED cho bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 “\u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3” h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 2% v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh. Tuy…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6408,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[103],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6729"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6729"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6729\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6841,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6729\/revisions\/6841"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}