{"id":18301,"date":"2026-10-09T15:52:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T08:52:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/?p=18301"},"modified":"2026-10-09T16:01:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T09:01:24","slug":"vietnam-sector-rotation-allocation-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/vietnam-sector-rotation-allocation-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"TRI\u1ec2N V\u1eccNG LU\u00c2N CHUY\u1ec2N V\u00c0 PH\u00c2N B\u1ed4 NH\u00d3M NG\u00c0NH T\u1ea0I VI\u1ec6T NAM"},"content":{"rendered":"\"\"<\/p>\n

TRI\u1ec2N V\u1eccNG LU\u00c2N CHUY\u1ec2N V\u00c0 PH\u00c2N B\u1ed4 NH\u00d3M NG\u00c0NH T\u1ea0I VI\u1ec6T NAM<\/b><\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

<\/h1>\n

T\u00f3m t\u1eaft <\/strong><\/h1>\n

V\u1ecb th\u1ebf d\u1eabn d\u1eaft theo nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00ednh duy tr\u00ec t\u1eeb n\u0103m n\u00e0y sang n\u0103m kh\u00e1c: nh\u00f3m d\u1eabn d\u1eaft c\u1ee7a n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i cung c\u1ea5p r\u1ea5t \u00edt th\u00f4ng tin d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cho n\u0103m nay. Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c b\u1ea3ng x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh h\u00e0ng n\u0103m ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 v\u0129 m\u00f4 bao g\u1ed3m chi ph\u00ed huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n, d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a si\u00eau l\u1edbn \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb, \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 thanh kho\u1ea3n ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i b\u1edfi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u0103m 2026 l\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao d\u1eabn d\u1eaft b\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb ph\u00eda cung ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac. Trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p thu ph\u00ed cho thu\u00ea t\u1eeb s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t FDI, n\u1eafm gi\u1eef gi\u1ea5y ph\u00e9p khan hi\u1ebfm, ki\u1ebfm doanh thu b\u1eb1ng USD ho\u1eb7c c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng theo ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i gi\u1eef quan \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, c\u00f4ng ty ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng cho vay b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n l\u1edbn. Trong nh\u00f3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc k\u1ef9 l\u01b0\u1ee1ng v\u00e0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 chi ph\u00ed huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n th\u1ea5p (CASA).<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y quan tr\u1ecdng v\u00ec nh\u00f3m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfm ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 vay k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 (margin) trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua bi\u00ean \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t margin \u1edf m\u1ee9c 13% \u0111\u1ebfn 14% trong khi c\u00e1c g\u00f3i huy \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi v\u01b0\u1ee3t 8%. Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e2ng h\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a FTSE kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y: d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ngo\u1ea1i b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o (AI), ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103m 2026 v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y cao, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t neo cao v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c dung n\u1ea1p, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 doanh thu kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi tr\u00e1nh c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n kh\u00fac m\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng d\u1ed3n v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

– Gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, c\u00f4ng ty ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng cho vay b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

– Gi\u1eef t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng trung l\u1eadp v\u00e0 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00f3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 chi ph\u00ed huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n

– \u01afu ti\u00ean c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p thu ph\u00ed cho thu\u00ea t\u1eeb s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t FDI (khu c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, c\u1ea3ng bi\u1ec3n, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng), v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00f3 gi\u1ea5y ph\u00e9p khan hi\u1ebfm, c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p thu ti\u1ec1n USD v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u01b0u ti\u00ean theo ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng.<\/p>\n

– Duy tr\u00ec m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 lu\u00e2n chuy\u1ec3n nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9<\/strong><\/h1>\n

S\u1ef1 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh kh\u00f4ng mang t\u00ednh li\u00ean t\u1ee5c. H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan h\u1ea1ng Spearman gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c n\u0103m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong kho\u1ea3ng t\u1eeb +0,53 \u0111\u1ebfn \u22120,70 v\u00e0 trung b\u00ecnh g\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng 0. Vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ec9 theo d\u00f5i nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn \u1edf n\u0103m ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n

L\u1ee2I NHU\u1eacN H\u00c0NG N\u0102M THEO NH\u00d3M NG\u00c0NH HOSE GICS (2018 \u2013 \u0110\u1ea6U N\u0102M 2026 \u0110\u1ebeN NAY)<\/p>\n

\"L\u1ee2I
Ngu\u1ed3n: Fiinpro, PHFM t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

S\u1ef1 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh b\u1edfi v\u0129 m\u00f4<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n

Nh\u00f3m d\u1eabn d\u1eaft c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec1u \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u di\u1ec5n ra th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean. C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng tin x\u1ebfp th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024 (+76,5%) v\u00e0 x\u1ebfp cu\u1ed1i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025 (\u221226,8%); b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c \u22128,1% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024 sang +213,8% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Ngu\u1ed3n: Fiinpro, PHFM t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ng\u00e0nh d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 ng\u00e0nh m\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n

Nh\u00f3m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 k\u00eanh t\u00edch s\u1ea3n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t: ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u1ee9ng th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ed1t th\u1ee9 hai v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u00edch l\u0169y cao nh\u1ea5t, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda so v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n. Kho\u1ea3n l\u00e3i t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ebfn ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2025. H\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 nh\u00f3m k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac, gi\u1ea3m 36% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2017.<\/p>\n

\"\"
*D\u1eef li\u1ec7u VNIT b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020; \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a VNIT t\u00ednh cho giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2020-2025.
Ngu\u1ed3n: Fiinpro, PHFM t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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S\u1ef1 t\u1eadp trung v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a l\u00e0m sai l\u1ec7ch b\u1ee9c tranh nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n

S\u1ef1 t\u1eadp trung v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a l\u00e0m sai l\u1ec7ch b\u1ee9c tranh nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u00edt c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu: VNREAL ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn g\u1ed3m h\u1ecd Vingroup v\u00e0 VNIT ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u00e0 FPT. N\u0103m 2025, kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1eefa nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1edbi 241 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. N\u0103m 2026, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 3 trong s\u1ed1 10 nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh t\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c trung v\u1ecb c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh gi\u1ea3m 11,8%, do \u0111\u00f3 VN-Index c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u0111i ngang nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i \u1ea9n ch\u1ee9a s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng. L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng tin v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ngh\u1ecbch (\u22120,42 trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2020\u201325), mang l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

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B\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh v\u0129 m\u00f4, 9T \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026<\/strong><\/h1>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng duy tr\u00ec m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u00e0 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft b\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t. GDP qu\u00fd 3 t\u0103ng 9,95% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u01b0a m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 9 th\u00e1ng l\u00ean 9,01%, nhanh nh\u1ea5t trong 15 n\u0103m qua. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ea3 n\u0103m 10% \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng qu\u00fd 4 ph\u1ea3i v\u01b0\u1ee3t 12,5%.<\/p>\n

S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i cho th\u1ea5y b\u00ean n\u00e0o n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u. Trong 9 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026, khu v\u1ef1c n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t 34,3 t\u1ef7 USD trong khi khu v\u1ef1c FDI (bao g\u1ed3m d\u1ea7u th\u00f4) th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 14,9 t\u1ef7 USD. C\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p FDI chi\u1ebfm 80,7% kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 94,1% kim ng\u1ea1ch nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. Do \u0111\u00f3, l\u1ee3i \u00edch t\u1eeb xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu ch\u1ea3y v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f3 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba ni\u00eam y\u1ebft.<\/p>\n

\u00c1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb ph\u00eda cung: gi\u00e1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u trung b\u00ecnh t\u0103ng 10,89% trong 9 th\u00e1ng, v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trong th\u00e1ng 9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi gi\u00e1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 h\u1ecdc ph\u00ed. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7t Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1eb9t gi\u1eefa m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 tr\u1ea7n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m ngh\u1ebdn: l\u00fd do l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 10% \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u00f4ng qua t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng, trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m kh\u00f4ng theo k\u1ecbp v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang t\u0103ng l\u00ean.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft b\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n

– \u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u00e3 \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao. T\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 145% GDP v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025 v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u1edf m\u1ee9c g\u1ea7n 155% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026. V\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m kho\u1ea3ng 16%, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t 180% v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u1eadp k\u1ef7.<\/p>\n

– K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch n\u00e0y l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1eb7t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n 40% GDP trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2026\u20132030, t\u0103ng t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 34%.<\/p>\n

– C\u00e1c quy \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch n\u00e0y. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 1 th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 2026, tr\u1ea7n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec3 cho vay trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 30% l\u00ean 40%, l\u00e0m n\u1edbi r\u1ed9ng r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ec7ch k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

– Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng vay v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ea1nh tranh ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n. L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3ng 4,0% v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 4,67%\u20134,80% t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c phi\u00ean \u0111\u1ea5u gi\u00e1 th\u00e1ng 9, l\u00e0 th\u00e1ng t\u0103ng th\u1ee9 ba li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp.<\/p>\n

– Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ea3i cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, do \u0111\u00f3 ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi l\u00e0 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c. C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111ang ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u1edf m\u1ee9c 9%\u201310% \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng cho vay cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t ch\u00ednh so v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c: n\u1ee3 n\u1eb1m \u1edf c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n

N\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u1edf m\u1ee9c 35% – 36% GDP, v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn v\u1ed1n FDI \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t thay v\u00ec b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y mang l\u1ea1i d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a cho nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y chuy\u1ec3n r\u1ee7i ro tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00ean b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n ni\u00eam y\u1ebft, c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a thu\u1ea7n t\u00fay sang c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ea1o d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7, c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u1ed1t. \u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u1eb1m tr\u00ean b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, do \u0111\u00f3 n\u1ebfu x\u1ea3y ra s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, c\u00e1c t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed5 d\u1ed3n tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean v\u00e0o nh\u00f3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, hai l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ni\u00eam y\u1ebft.<\/p>\n

Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng hai h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Thay v\u00ec h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng hai h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i. C\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u01b0u ti\u00ean v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u1edbn nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb 1 \u0111\u1ebfn 3,6 \u0111i\u1ec3m %, v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u1edbn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mi\u1ec5n h\u1ea1n m\u1ee9c t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. \u0110\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng qu\u00fd 4 si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c r\u1ee7i ro nh\u01b0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n

K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c dung n\u1ea1p l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0110\u1ed3ng suy y\u1ebfu d\u1ea7n thay v\u00ec t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. V\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (CPI) \u1edf m\u1ee9c 5,08% v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1edbn g\u1ea7n 6,9%, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c d\u01b0\u1edbi 2%.<\/p>\n

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C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, thanh kho\u1ea3n n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ngo\u1ea1i<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 b\u1edfi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, do \u0111\u00f3 chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ngo\u1ea1i ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfm ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Ri\u00eang nh\u00f3m Vingroup chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 30% v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng HOSE v\u00e0 20% thanh kho\u1ea3n, t\u0103ng t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 7% v\u00e0 2% v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2025. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 nh\u00f3m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u1eabn l\u00e0 l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c t\u00edch s\u1ea3n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed Vi\u1ec7t Nam, ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t v\u1ed1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi kh\u00f4ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n (CASA) chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ch\u1ecbu g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n

D\u01b0 n\u1ee3 cho vay k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 (margin) \u1edf m\u1ee9c k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. Kho\u1ea3n vay margin c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 435 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i qu\u00fd 2 n\u0103m 2026, m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c v\u00e0 t\u0103ng 30 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng trong m\u1ed9t qu\u00fd. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t margin t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng ty ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 13%\u201314%.<\/p>\n

Ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u1ea1nh tranh gay g\u1eaft. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi 12 th\u00e1ng ni\u00eam y\u1ebft dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 3,7% \u0111\u1ebfn 7,8%, nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu t\u00ednh c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 khuy\u1ebfn m\u00e3i, c\u00f3 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 13 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7u d\u1ee5ng quy \u0111\u1ed5i theo n\u0103m v\u01b0\u1ee3t 9%. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 am hi\u1ec3u l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi giao d\u1ecbch b\u1eb1ng margin, m\u1ee9c 9% ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu \u0111ang m\u1ecfng d\u1ea7n. V\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2026, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng giao d\u1ecbch \u1edf m\u1ee9c P\/E d\u1ef1 ph\u00f3ng n\u0103m 2026 l\u00e0 12,9 l\u1ea7n, ho\u1eb7c 9,6 l\u1ea7n n\u1ebfu lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb Vingroup, h\u00e0m \u00fd l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng kho\u1ea3ng 7,8% v\u00e0 10,4%. L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u00ednh theo ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi 9%; n\u1ebfu lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb Vingroup, m\u1ee9c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 10,4%, ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i kho\u1ea3ng 1,4 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e2ng h\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a FTSE kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ch\u1ea5t x\u00fac t\u00e1c d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n l\u1edbn trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam chuy\u1ec3n l\u00ean nh\u00f3m Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p (Secondary Emerging) c\u1ee7a FTSE v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 21 th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2026, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ee3t ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean mang l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 th\u1ea5t v\u1ecdng. VN-Index gi\u1ea3m 3,47% trong th\u00e1ng 9, v\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i b\u00e1n r\u00f2ng kho\u1ea3ng 7,8 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng tr\u00ean s\u00e0n HOSE trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 21 th\u00e1ng 9 \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 2 th\u00e1ng 10. T\u00ednh t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ebfn nay, kh\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i b\u00e1n r\u00f2ng kho\u1ea3ng 95 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/p>\n

– Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 quy m\u00f4 nh\u1ecf. 27 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu gia nh\u1eadp qua b\u1ed1n b\u01b0\u1edbc: 10% (21\/09\/2026), 20% (22\/03\/2027), 35% (21\/06\/2027) v\u00e0 35% (20\/09\/2027). D\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u00e1m theo FTSE EM l\u00e0 kh\u00e1 khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n

– Gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch theo h\u01b0\u1edbng \u201ct\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u qu\u1ef9 c\u1eadn bi\u00ean\u201d t\u1ecf ra kh\u00f4ng thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c. Ti\u1ec1n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1eadn bi\u00ean s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tham chi\u1ebfu l\u00e0 MSCI, v\u00e0 MSCI hi\u1ec7n v\u1eabn x\u1ebfp Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0o nh\u00f3m C\u1eadn bi\u00ean; t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0a Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0o danh s\u00e1ch theo d\u00f5i v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m 2026. T\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u00e1m theo ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1eadn bi\u00ean c\u1ee7a FTSE d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00e1 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.
\n\u00c1p l\u1ef1c b\u00e1n ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 v\u0129 m\u00f4 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n. Ch\u00fang bao g\u1ed3m vi\u1ec7c Fed t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng USD m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u sang c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng AI, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb v\u1ecb th\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edbc cho vi\u1ec7c n\u00e2ng h\u1ea1ng (c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e0 b\u00e1n r\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c), v\u00e0 c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 nh\u01b0 PNJ v\u00e0 HDB.<\/p>\n

– Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng (active money) s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o nhanh ch\u00f3ng. Gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i (FOL), c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nh\u1ecf c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. C\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i, nh\u01b0ng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n l\u00e0 l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu minh b\u1ea1ch trong n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0m n\u1ea3n l\u00f2ng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

– K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 mang \u00fd th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 MSCI EM, v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f2n c\u00e1ch xa nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m n\u1eefa. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o v\u00e0 b\u00e1n ra sau th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o \u1edf c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ti\u1ebfp theo c\u1ee7a FTSE.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Trong ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y cao, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t neo cao v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c dung n\u1ea1p, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 doanh thu kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba v\u00e0 tr\u00e1nh c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p m\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng d\u1ed3n v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00f3.<\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

<\/h1>\n

Khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Duy tr\u00ec danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1ec7 tinh (core-satellite) mang t\u00ednh ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh quy m\u00f4 theo r\u1ee7i ro, k\u00e8m theo \u0111\u1ec7m ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t, cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

1. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh (momentum). T\u00ednh duy tr\u00ec c\u1ee7a th\u1ee9 h\u1ea1ng g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng, do \u0111\u00f3 mua nh\u00f3m d\u1eabn d\u1eaft c\u1ee7a n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t canh b\u1ea1c r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 v\u0129 m\u00f4 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

2. X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1edbi t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba. C\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 khu c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 c\u1ea3ng bi\u1ec3n ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 FDI, v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 gi\u1ea5y ph\u00e9p khan hi\u1ebfm, c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p thu ti\u1ec1n USD v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p c\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc. Kh\u00f4ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ti\u00eau ch\u00ed \u201cc\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e2ng h\u1ea1ng b\u1edfi FTSE\u201d l\u00e0m ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn.<\/p>\n

3. S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng danh m\u1ee5c v\u1ec7 tinh cho c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch theo chu k\u1ef3 v\u0129 m\u00f4 (regime trades), v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. Ch\u1ec9 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch sang h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng kh\u00f4ng thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 nh\u00f3m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t sau khi c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u \u1edf ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi.<\/p>\n

4. Ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eadp trung theo ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tham chi\u1ebfu. C\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 30% v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng HOSE v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb (VNREAL t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng gia \u0111\u00ecnh Vingroup, VNIT t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng FPT). Ki\u1ec3m tra m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u01a1i nhi\u1ec5m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1eebng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ri\u00eang l\u1ebb trong b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n

5. T\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u v\u1edbi k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t. V\u00ec th\u1ee9 h\u1ea1ng nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m nh\u00f3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 b\u1ed5 sung v\u00e0o nh\u00f3m t\u1ee5t h\u1eadu trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (buy-and-hold) tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

6. D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n cho c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t b\u00e1n th\u00e1o doforced selling, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u00e1y. C\u00e1c ng\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 l\u1ec7nh g\u1ecdi k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 (margin call) t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 l\u1ec7ch l\u1ea1c t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n l\u1ec7ch l\u1ea1c sau s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n mang l\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec3m quan s\u00e1t t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c \u0111u\u1ed5i theo \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

R\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/strong><\/h1>\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 s\u1edf l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e2m d\u1ee5ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng: m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 10% \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo \u0111u\u1ed5i b\u1eb1ng th\u00eam t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau c\u00f4ng; l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t quanh 5% v\u00e0 VND y\u1ebfu d\u1ea7n. R\u1ee7i ro \u0111u\u00f4i l\u00e0 b\u1ecb bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t trong m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y r\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

<\/h1>\n

C\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i<\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng:<\/strong>\u00a0T\u00edn d\u1ee5ng g\u1ea7n 150% GDP, \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n l\u1edbn h\u01a1n sau thay \u0111\u1ed5i quy \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 7\/2026, v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y margin:<\/strong>\u00a0D\u01b0 n\u1ee3 margin k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 13\u201314%; m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u1edf t\u1eebng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t b\u00e1n c\u01b0\u1ee1ng b\u1ee9c, nh\u01b0 v\u1ee5 PNJ \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y.<\/p>\n

T\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m:<\/strong>\u00a0T\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng t\u1eadp trung cao v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m khi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y hi\u1ec3u l\u1ea7m theo c\u1ea3 hai chi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 VND:<\/strong>\u00a0L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i 9 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c Fed t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ef1c thi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch:<\/strong>\u00a0\u0110\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 t\u1ea1o ra kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 10% th\u00ec t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1edbi th\u00eam.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 mong manh c\u1ee7a ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng:<\/strong>\u00a0Ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 d\u1ef1a nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o du l\u1ecbch; n\u1ebfu du l\u1ecbch ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i, nhu c\u1ea7u n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba y\u1ebfu s\u1ebd l\u1ed9 ra.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1:<\/strong>\u00a0M\u1ed7i \u0111\u1ee3t FTSE \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 t\u0103ng n\u00f3ng r\u1ed3i b\u00e1n th\u00e1o; vi\u1ec7c MSCI EM \u0111\u01b0a Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0o ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Ph\u00f2ng \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0, PHFM<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

TRI\u1ec2N V\u1eccNG LU\u00c2N CHUY\u1ec2N V\u00c0 PH\u00c2N B\u1ed4 NH\u00d3M NG\u00c0NH T\u1ea0I VI\u1ec6T NAM T\u00f3m t\u1eaft V\u1ecb th\u1ebf d\u1eabn d\u1eaft theo nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00ednh duy tr\u00ec t\u1eeb n\u0103m n\u00e0y sang n\u0103m kh\u00e1c: nh\u00f3m d\u1eabn d\u1eaft c\u1ee7a n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i cung c\u1ea5p r\u1ea5t \u00edt th\u00f4ng tin d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cho n\u0103m…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":18302,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[103,107],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18301"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18301"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18301\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18347,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18301\/revisions\/18347"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18302"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}