{"id":18149,"date":"2026-10-05T15:46:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T08:46:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/?p=18149"},"modified":"2026-10-05T15:46:39","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T08:46:39","slug":"interest-rates-and-the-monetary-story-the-end-of-the-global-cheap-money-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/interest-rates-and-the-monetary-story-the-end-of-the-global-cheap-money-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u00c3I SU\u1ea4T V\u00c0 C\u00c2U CHUY\u1ec6N TI\u1ec0N T\u1ec6: S\u1ef0 K\u1ebeT TH\u00daC C\u1ee6A CHU K\u1ef2 TI\u1ec0N R\u1eba TO\u00c0N C\u1ea6U"},"content":{"rendered":"\"\"<\/p>\n

L\u00c3I SU\u1ea4T V\u00c0 C\u00c2U CHUY\u1ec6N TI\u1ec0N T\u1ec6: S\u1ef0 K\u1ebeT TH\u00daC C\u1ee6A CHU K\u1ef2 TI\u1ec0N R\u1eba TO\u00c0N C\u1ea6U<\/b><\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u?<\/strong><\/h1>\n

B\u1ee9c tranh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 t\u00e1i c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf quy m\u00f4 ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 trong ba th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua. T\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c l\u1eadp m\u1ee9c 5,24%, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 30 n\u0103m l\u00ean 5,56%, m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2004.<\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: FRED<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u0110\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd, c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t \u0111ang tr\u1ea3i qua qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00e1i d\u1ed1c l\u00ean sau m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u00e2u khi m\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1eefa k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m v\u00e0 2 n\u0103m hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng. Kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y khi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong d\u1ed1c l\u00ean ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu do l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh v\u00ec C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh d\u1ed1c l\u00ean hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1eabn d\u1eaft b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 b\u1ee9t ph\u00e1 c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 khi h\u1ecd \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ee9c b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh M\u1ef9, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia l\u1edbn kh\u00e1c c\u0169ng l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf h\u01a1n. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ECB) \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t mang t\u00ednh di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u khi n\u00e2ng c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t, \u0111\u01b0a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay c\u1eadn bi\u00ean l\u00ean 2,90% v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi l\u00ean 2,50% nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t dai d\u1eb3ng, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i Ch\u00e2u \u00c1, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n (BOJ) c\u0169ng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00ean 1,25%, \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n cao nh\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 4\/1995. \u0110\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 nh\u1eb1m m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t m\u00e0 c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed3ng Yen tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng. Vi\u1ec7c BOJ t\u1eeb b\u1ecf ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f3ng s\u1eadp c\u00e1nh c\u1eeda c\u1ee7a ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb t\u1eebng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7.<\/p>\n

L\u1ea7n n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t?<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Trong c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc, s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1eabn d\u1eaft b\u1edfi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng cao. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ee3t b\u1ee9t ph\u00e1 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t v\u01b0\u1ee3t 5% l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y l\u1ea1i th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ph\u00e2n t\u00e1ch l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu 10 n\u0103m th\u00e0nh hai th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp: ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng (breakeven inflation rate) v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c (real yield), ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: FRED<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

T\u1eeb sau \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch Covid-19, ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 10 n\u0103m th\u01b0\u1eddng duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c 2,34%. Tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n tin t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a Fed. Do \u0111\u00f3, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t danh ngh\u0129a l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 5%, m\u00e0 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ee9t ph\u00e1 c\u1ee7a k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 2,90% t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c \u00e2m ho\u1eb7c ti\u1ec7m c\u1eadn 0% trong su\u1ed1t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t sinh l\u1eddi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cao h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng cho vay d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: FRED<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n s\u00e2u xa c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 b\u1ee9t ph\u00e1 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c n\u1eb1m \u1edf s\u1ef1 ph\u00ecnh to c\u1ee7a ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9. Theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ACM c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang New York, ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m hi\u1ec7n \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 1,02%. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t b\u1ed5 sung m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho r\u1ee7i ro n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n thay v\u00ec li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u c\u1ee7a ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng cung c\u1ea7u n\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n v\u0129 m\u00f4.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh n\u00ean k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Vi\u1ec7c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1ea5t th\u1eddi m\u00e0 l\u00e0 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n mang c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u1ee3<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Ngu\u1ed3n: Federal Reserve Financial Accounts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea9y ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n l\u00ean cao l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9. Theo d\u1ef1 ph\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a V\u0103n ph\u00f2ng Ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 (CBO), th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 1.900 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 5,8% GDP. C\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i h\u01a1n, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng do c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang n\u1eafm gi\u1eef d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c t\u1eeb 101% GDP v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 120% GDP v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2036. Trong khi kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt, c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac t\u1ec7p kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i. Trong k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, khi Fed th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QT) v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m mua gom USD \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 n\u1ee3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u1ec3n sang khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n. Nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn mua n\u1ee3 khi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ee7 cao \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edn nhi\u1ec7m d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1ed1n kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: SEC, U.S Census Bureau, BEA, b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00f4ng ty<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng, khi m\u00e0 m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u00ean 5% s\u1ebd d\u1ec5 g\u00e2y ra suy tho\u00e1i, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 hi\u1ec7n v\u1eabn \u0111ang cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00e1ng kinh ng\u1ea1c. \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a Tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 chi ti\u00eau v\u1ed1n quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn. C\u00e1c t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 b\u00e1n d\u1eabn. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t t\u1eeb AI cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p n\u00e0y duy tr\u00ec ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ngay c\u1ea3 khi chi ph\u00ed vay m\u01b0\u1ee3n \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf. T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eabn s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng vay v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n ngay c\u1ea3 khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao, qua \u0111\u00f3 n\u00e2ng m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t chung \u1edf M\u1ef9 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao. Khi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng (ROI) t\u1eeb c\u00e1c si\u00eau d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa m\u1ee9c chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n 5%, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 v\u1ed1n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, v\u00f4 hi\u1ec7u h\u00f3a n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\"\"
Ngu\u1ed3n: U.S Department of Treasury<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Vi\u1ec7c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean 1,25% v\u00e0 t\u1eebng b\u01b0\u1edbc b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u0111ang l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb t\u1eeb Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng b\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ee1 thanh kho\u1ea3n cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. Khi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n trong vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n ra n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i c\u0169ng suy y\u1ebfu. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng b\u00e1n th\u00e1o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 n\u1ee3 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. Tuy nhi\u00ean, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111i ngang trong khi quy m\u00f4 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 do nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng, khi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 18,2% n\u0103m 2016 xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 11,9% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, thay v\u00ec r\u00fat v\u1ed1n \u1ed3 \u1ea1t, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 Nh\u1eadt \u0111ang \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n trong vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung m\u1edbi, th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m mua th\u00eam ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 khi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n. T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, khi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 tr\u1edf n\u00ean b\u1edbt h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n do chi ph\u00ed c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i thay \u0111\u1ed5i, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i t\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea9y ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n l\u00ean cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef ch\u00e2n c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 thu h\u00fat d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

H\u00e0m \u00fd \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong><\/h2>\n

C\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u cho th\u1ea5y m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Khi chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n cao tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c \u0111i t\u00ecm “ai t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh nh\u1ea5t” sang “ai c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1ea1o ra d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n ti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb”.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf:<\/strong> L\u00e0 nh\u1eefng doanh nghi\u1ec7p duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c n\u1ee3 th\u1ea5p ho\u1eb7c s\u1edf h\u1eefu l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t r\u00f2ng d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o, t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t sinh l\u1eddi tr\u00ean v\u1ed1n (ROIC) cao v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n. Trong k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean ti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u1ed3 \u1ea1t gi\u00fap m\u1ecdi doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00f3ng, tuy nhi\u00ean, khi d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf, m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh l\u1ea1i ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh, gi\u00fap doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ef1 ch\u1ee7 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 th\u00e2u t\u00f3m th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c:<\/strong> L\u00e0 nh\u1eefng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh doanh vay n\u1ee3 qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c, c\u1ea7n huy \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng quy m\u00f4, ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p startup\/c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 m\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng n\u1eb1m \u1edf m\u1ed9t t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai qu\u00e1 xa. Khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u trong c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng l\u00ean, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai n\u00e0y s\u1ebd s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac danh m\u1ee5c, k\u00eanh thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh (ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m, qu\u1ef9 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu) hi\u1ec7n ghi nh\u1eadn t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. \u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi ch\u1edd c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u01b0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, m\u00e0 n\u00ean l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t k\u00eanh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n cho danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i. B\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u00e0o t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n hi\u1ec7n nay c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tham chi\u1ebfu nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi 12 th\u00e1ng (\u0111ang dao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh quanh m\u1ee9c 7-8%). C\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1edbn so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y th\u00ec m\u1edbi m\u1edbi th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 mang l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

\u00a0V\u00f5 Ho\u00e0ng Long – Ph\u00f2ng \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0, PHFM<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u00c3I SU\u1ea4T V\u00c0 C\u00c2U CHUY\u1ec6N TI\u1ec0N T\u1ec6: S\u1ef0 K\u1ebeT TH\u00daC C\u1ee6A CHU K\u1ef2 TI\u1ec0N R\u1eba TO\u00c0N C\u1ea6U \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u? B\u1ee9c tranh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 t\u00e1i c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf quy m\u00f4 ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 trong ba th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":18168,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[103,107],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18149"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18149"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18149\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18178,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18149\/revisions\/18178"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18168"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}