{"id":16915,"date":"2026-07-08T10:12:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T03:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/?p=16915"},"modified":"2026-07-08T10:27:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T03:27:54","slug":"vietnam-financial-market-mid26-liquidity-pressure-and-structural-issues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/vietnam-financial-market-mid26-liquidity-pressure-and-structural-issues\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u1ef0 M\u1ea4T C\u00c2N \u0110\u1ed0I THANH KHO\u1ea2N V\u00c0 TH\u00c1CH TH\u1ee8C C\u1ea4U TR\u00daC TR\u00caN TH\u1eca TR\u01af\u1edcNG T\u00c0I CH\u00cdNH VI\u1ec6T NAM GIAI \u0110O\u1ea0N GI\u1eeeA N\u0102M 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

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S\u1ef0 M\u1ea4T C\u00c2N \u0110\u1ed0I THANH KHO\u1ea2N V\u00c0 TH\u00c1CH TH\u1ee8C C\u1ea4U TR\u00daC TR\u00caN TH\u1eca TR\u01af\u1edcNG T\u00c0I CH\u00cdNH VI\u1ec6T NAM GIAI \u0110O\u1ea0N GI\u1eeeA N\u0102M 2026<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

V\u1eeba qua, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7y tham v\u1ecdng cho n\u0103m 2026 \u1edf m\u1ee9c t\u1eeb 10% tr\u1edf l\u00ean. \u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0y, k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt t\u1ea1i Ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft s\u1ed1 168\/NQ-CP ng\u00e0y 27\/06\/2026 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 11,9%. Trong \u0111\u00f3, khu v\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh – ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng – b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 14%.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Vi\u1ec7t Nam b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2026 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u0111an xen gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u00e0 c\u00e1c r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n mang t\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac. S\u1ef1 l\u1ec7ch pha gi\u1eefa t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi \u0111ang l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u0129 m\u00f4 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i thanh kho\u1ea3n t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n s\u00e2u xa li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong chu k\u1ef3 kinh t\u1ebf s\u1eafp t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ef1c tr\u1ea1ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi<\/strong><\/h1>\n
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Ngu\u1ed3n: FiinPro, NHNN, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea to\u00e0n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c tranh ph\u00e2n c\u1ef1c r\u00f5 n\u00e9t v\u1ec1 thanh kho\u1ea3n ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 04\/2026, d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 18,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3, \u0111\u1ea1t quy m\u00f4 kho\u1ea3ng 19,45 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n to\u00e0n ng\u00e0nh ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t 10,8% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3. S\u1ef1 l\u1ec7ch pha n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch kho\u1ea3ng 2,6 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng gi\u1eefa d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 cho vay v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi huy \u0111\u1ed9ng. K\u00e9o theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 LDR thu\u1ea7n to\u00e0n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 116%, t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 106% ghi nh\u1eadn v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2025, g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ec7m thanh kho\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u \u00e1p l\u1ef1c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t thanh kho\u1ea3n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: FiinPro, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Quy m\u00f4 Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch\/ D\u01b0 n\u1ee3 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng hi\u1ec7n ch\u1ea1m m\u1ee9c k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c -14%, ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chu k\u1ef3 th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 thanh kho\u1ea3n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i su\u1ed1t m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i l\u1ec7ch pha x\u1ea5u, b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp l\u1ea1i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng thu h\u1eb9p kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i m\u1ed1c 0% c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a 3 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh: (1) S\u1ef1 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, (2) T\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng, (3) Th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: FiinPro, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

C\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n cho s\u1ef1 l\u1ec7ch pha trong t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 v\u1ed1n huy \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0 1. Nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ed1n b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n

N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o chu k\u1ef3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n 5 n\u0103m m\u1edbi v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng giao th\u00f4ng, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i s\u1ed1 v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng l\u1edbn. Trong n\u0103m 2026, t\u1ed5ng nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh kho\u1ea3ng 5,1 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, trong \u0111\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ed1n t\u1eeb k\u00eanh t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi 1,8 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng (35%). K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng n\u0103m 2026 v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4 1,1 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p thu\u1ed9c nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng, v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u, logistics v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh li\u00ean quan t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng vay v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ec3 tri\u1ec3n khai d\u1ef1 \u00e1n. Do th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n (c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p) ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9 s\u00e2u \u0111\u1ec3 g\u00e1nh v\u00e1c vai tr\u00f2 cung \u1ee9ng v\u1ed1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh \u00e1p l\u1ef1c cung c\u1ea5p t\u1eeb 65% \u0111\u1ebfn 70% t\u1ed5ng ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00ean r\u1ea5t nhanh.<\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: NSO, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0 2. S\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n mang t\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch thanh kho\u1ea3n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng b\u1edfi \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam: kho\u1ea3ng 80% \u0111\u1ebfn 90% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n v\u00e0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n ng\u1eafn d\u01b0\u1edbi 12 th\u00e1ng. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, nhu c\u1ea7u vay v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1ea1i t\u1eadp trung ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u1edf c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n vay trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi 50% t\u1ed5ng d\u01b0 n\u1ee3) \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng, b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 x\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian ho\u00e0n v\u1ed1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i. S\u1ef1 l\u1ec7ch pha k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng l\u1edbn t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. Khi t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng trung d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng ti\u1ec7m c\u1eadn c\u00e1c gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n an to\u00e0n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt, bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i c\u1ea1nh tranh gay g\u1eaft \u0111\u1ec3 thu h\u00fat ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: FiinPro, NHNN, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 25\/2026\/TT-NHNN (\u00e1p d\u1ee5ng t\u1eeb 01\/07\/2026) l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1ea5t nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u00e0i to\u00e1n m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n n\u00e0y. B\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c n\u00e2ng tr\u1ea7n t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1ed1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n cho vay trung – d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n t\u1eeb 30% l\u00ean 40% v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh LDR linh ho\u1ea1t h\u01a1n khi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p 20% ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi Kho b\u1ea1c Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, quy\u1ebft s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng t\u1edbi 1,15 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t cu\u1ed9c \u0111ua l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng, d\u00f9 ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ec7ch pha thanh kho\u1ea3n gia t\u0103ng trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Vi\u1ec7c nhanh ch\u00f3ng ban h\u00e0nh Th\u00f4ng t\u01b0 25 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 trong vi\u1ec7c s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua c\u00e1c r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ec3 \u01b0u ti\u00ean d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n cho c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a – ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng t\u0103ng v\u1ed1n nh\u1eb1m gia c\u1ed1 b\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ec7m an to\u00e0n cho c\u1ea3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trong chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 3. S\u1ef1 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n sang c\u00e1c k\u00eanh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n thay th\u1ebf v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i trong n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u2013 v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n ni\u00eam y\u1ebft l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c 7%\/n\u0103m cho k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 12 th\u00e1ng \u2013 ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u1eabn ph\u1ea3i c\u1ea1nh tranh kh\u1ed1c li\u1ec7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c. S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 cao c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 h\u00fat m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i t\u1eeb d\u00e2n c\u01b0, khi\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n b\u1ecb gi\u1eef l\u1ea1i \u1edf c\u00e1c k\u00eanh n\u00e0y thay v\u00ec quay v\u00f2ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng do hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00edch l\u0169y t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh, l\u00e0m ch\u1eadm t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ea1o l\u1eadp ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Ngu\u1ed3n: Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0 4. Th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch l\u1edbn v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ch\u1eadm tr\u1ec5 trong gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n

M\u1ed9t t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng v\u0129 m\u00f4 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn thanh kho\u1ea3n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 l\u1ec7ch pha gi\u1eefa thu v\u00e0 chi ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc. Trong 5 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026, ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 495 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1edd ngu\u1ed3n thu ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh 15,4% trong khi chi ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng 3,3%. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng trong n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1eeb 20% k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao. Vi\u1ec7c ch\u1eadm gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a Kho b\u1ea1c Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u1ecb k\u1eb9t l\u1ea1i h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 nh\u00f3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea3y ra n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o l\u1eadp d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p cho khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Ngu\u1ed3n: B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, NSO, PHFM<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

H\u00e0m \u00fd \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong><\/h1>\n

V\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP \u0111\u1ea7y tham v\u1ecdng nh\u01b0ng d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u1ec3n tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m sang ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n trong vi\u1ec7c huy \u0111\u1ed9ng, ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n mang t\u00ednh chu k\u1ef3, n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 b\u00e0i to\u00e1n thanh kho\u1ea3n v\u00e0 c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n. Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u00e1p l\u1ef1c thanh kho\u1ea3n \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng khi t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, trong khi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n kh\u00f4ng theo k\u1ecbp.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1eebng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng thanh kho\u1ea3n n\u0103m 2010. Khi t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng nhanh h\u01a1n huy \u0111\u1ed9ng, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i c\u1ea1nh tranh m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00fat ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do ch\u00ednh khi\u1ebfn m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng trong 6 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t trong kho\u1ea3ng ba n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 1. Kh\u01a1i th\u00f4ng d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n qua ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 thanh kho\u1ea3n hi\u1ec7n nay, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2026. Vi\u1ec7c b\u1ee9t t\u1ed1c gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ed1n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i s\u1ebd \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n tu\u1ea7n ho\u00e0n t\u1eeb Kho b\u1ea1c Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc sang khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n

Khi ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 th\u1ea7u v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c bi\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi kh\u00f4ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thanh kho\u1ea3n gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, gi\u00fap k\u00e9o gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 LDR h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p can thi\u1ec7p h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 2. Cu\u1ed9c \u0111ua t\u0103ng v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng chu\u1ea9n an to\u00e0n v\u1ed1n<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng chu\u1ea9n m\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf Basel II v\u00e0 Basel III trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ni\u00eam y\u1ebft d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn huy \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ed1n c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c l\u00ean t\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng 128.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng trong n\u0103m 2026, g\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 7 l\u1ea7n quy m\u00f4 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 cao h\u01a1n 71,6% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu, h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 an to\u00e0n v\u1ed1n (CAR) c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd b\u1ecb suy gi\u1ea3m nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng khi t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng l\u00ean, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 tri\u1ec7t ti\u00eau d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o thanh kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2u. L\u00e0n s\u00f3ng t\u0103ng v\u1ed1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed n\u00e0y t\u1eadp trung \u1edf c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

V\u00f5 Ho\u00e0ng Long – Ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, PHFM<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u1ef0 M\u1ea4T C\u00c2N \u0110\u1ed0I THANH KHO\u1ea2N V\u00c0 TH\u00c1CH TH\u1ee8C C\u1ea4U TR\u00daC TR\u00caN TH\u1eca TR\u01af\u1edcNG T\u00c0I CH\u00cdNH VI\u1ec6T NAM GIAI \u0110O\u1ea0N GI\u1eeeA N\u0102M 2026 V\u1eeba qua, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ki\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7y tham v\u1ecdng cho n\u0103m 2026 \u1edf m\u1ee9c t\u1eeb 10% tr\u1edf l\u00ean. \u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0y,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":16933,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[103,107],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16915"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16915"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16915\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16944,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16915\/revisions\/16944"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16933"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}