{"id":16088,"date":"2026-05-12T11:01:59","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T04:01:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/?p=16088"},"modified":"2026-05-12T11:10:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T04:10:35","slug":"inflation-returns-policy-diverges-navigating-the-road-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/inflation-returns-policy-diverges-navigating-the-road-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u1ea0M PH\u00c1T QUAY TR\u1ede L\u1ea0I, CH\u00cdNH S\u00c1CH PH\u00c2N HO\u00c1 – \u0110\u1ecaNH H\u01af\u1edaNG CHO CH\u1eb6NG \u0110\u01af\u1edcNG PH\u00cdA TR\u01af\u1edaC"},"content":{"rendered":"\"\"<\/p>\n

L\u1ea0M PH\u00c1T QUAY TR\u1ede L\u1ea0I, CH\u00cdNH S\u00c1CH PH\u00c2N HO\u00c1 – \u0110\u1ecaNH H\u01af\u1edaNG CHO CH\u1eb6NG \u0110\u01af\u1edcNG PH\u00cdA TR\u01af\u1edaC<\/strong><\/h1>\n

1. Nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 xoay quanh chi ph\u00ed sinh ho\u1ea1t<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u1ee9c tranh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u trong qu\u00fd I\/2026 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea9y, l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u0103n b\u1ea3n h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng. Trong su\u1ed1t cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 3,1% v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ea3 n\u0103m \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,4%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb l\u1edbn t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p, k\u00e9o theo \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, chi ph\u00ed logistics v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t l\u00e0 b\u00e0i to\u00e1n c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. Cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c phong t\u1ecfa eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u2013 tuy\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i tr\u1ecdng y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn kho\u1ea3ng 35% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n v\u00e0 20% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng (LNG) to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra \u0111\u1ee3t gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ebfn nay, khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ea5t \u0111i kho\u1ea3ng 10 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

H\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u Brent \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea1t 86 USD\/th\u00f9ng trong n\u0103m 2026, t\u0103ng 24% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, trong khi gi\u00e1 LNG giao ngay t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 140%. C\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean trong m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nhi\u1ec1u giai \u0111o\u1ea1n. L\u00e0n s\u00f3ng th\u1ee9 hai \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh \u1edf nh\u00f3m nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 31%, g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 l\u00ean gi\u00e1 l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o t\u0103ng cao \u0111ang d\u1ea7n lan sang c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, t\u1ea1o n\u00ean m\u1ed9t l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7y th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u00e0 c\u00e1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t.<\/p>\n

2. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1eb7t m\u00ecnh trong th\u1ebf ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7: H\u1ed3i k\u1ebft c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c kh\u00e9p l\u1ea1i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong n\u0103m 2026. C\u00e1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111ang th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t trong ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o s\u1ee9c ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u01a1i nhi\u1ec5m tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

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3. Th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t hay d\u00e8 ch\u1eebng: B\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0ng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng, v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP qu\u00fd I \u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 2,0% \u0111\u1ebfn 2,5%. \u0110\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu b\u1edfi chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng thu nh\u1eadp cao v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p. Tuy nhi\u00ean, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y n\u00ean lo ng\u1ea1i tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. CPI t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c l\u00ean 3,3% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 trong th\u00e1ng 3, trong khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chi ti\u00eau ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n (PCE) l\u00f5i t\u0103ng 3,0%. Kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t t\u1eeb c\u00e1c gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh doanh nghi\u1ec7p cho th\u1ea5y k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao 3,6%. Do \u0111\u00f3, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang (Fed) \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng chu k\u1ef3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, gi\u1eef l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u1ef9 li\u00ean bang trong kho\u1ea3ng 3,50% \u0111\u1ebfn 3,75%, v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0a ra k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n Fed s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ECB) \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t \u0111i t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t r\u00f5 n\u00e9t nh\u1ea5t trong s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn. Khu v\u1ef1c Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, v\u1ed1n d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac tr\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng. Gi\u00e1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 lan v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u nhanh h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng 2021\u20132022, bu\u1ed9c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u1ea3i n\u00e2ng gi\u00e1 ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7 ngay c\u1ea3 khi nhu c\u1ea7u c\u00f2n y\u1ebfu. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch cho r\u1eb1ng ECB s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ba \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1ed1n l\u1ea7n trong 12 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi, \u0111\u01b0a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 2,75% \u0111\u1ebfn 3,0%, b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1edbm nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 6\/2026.<\/p>\n

T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Anh (BoE) \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u1edf m\u1ee9c 3,75% trong th\u00e1ng 4\/2026. V\u1edbi CPI t\u1ea1i Anh ghi nh\u1eadn \u1edf m\u1ee9c 3,3% trong th\u00e1ng 3, BoE nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng d\u00f9 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y v\u1eabn ph\u1ea3i h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng quy\u1ebft li\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00f2ng hai l\u00ean m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

4. Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y: \u00c1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc gia t\u0103ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i \u0111ang th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi v\u1eabn quy\u1ebft li\u1ec7t theo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc. Trong qu\u00fd I\/2026, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u01b0\u1edbc t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 7,83% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3, nh\u1edd s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 v\u1ed1n FDI gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n t\u0103ng 9,1%, \u0111\u1ea1t 5,4 t\u1ef7 USD.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i \u0111\u00f4i v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea9y r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (CPI) t\u0103ng l\u00ean 5,46% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 trong th\u00e1ng 4\/2026, t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 4,65% c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng 3, trong khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao 4,66%.<\/p>\n

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C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00ean cao t\u1eadp trung ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u1edf nh\u1eefng nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i. Chi ph\u00ed giao th\u00f4ng t\u0103ng 11,1% trong th\u00e1ng 4 do c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, trong khi nh\u00f3m th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m t\u0103ng 5,2%. Hai nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y c\u1ed9ng l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 chi\u1ebfm h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda r\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u00ednh CPI t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u0169ng \u0111ang \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 theo l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh, bao g\u1ed3m d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 8,9% chi ph\u00ed d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 y t\u1ebf do chi ph\u00ed qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 c\u1ea5p cho nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean y t\u1ebf t\u0103ng l\u00ean.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn song song: v\u1eeba si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd gi\u00e1 h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh, v\u1eeba th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng nh\u1eb1m b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP 10%. V\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc Vi\u1ec7t Nam (NHNN) ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,50%, v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1eb7t \u1edf m\u1ee9c 15% cho c\u1ea3 n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

5. <\/strong>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1eafp t\u1edbi: Th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng tr\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. \u00c1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i di\u1ec5n ra theo nhi\u1ec1u l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng \u2013 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ee9c th\u1eddi, sau \u0111\u00f3 lan sang th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u2013 khi\u1ebfn cho k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c b\u1ecb tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho m\u1ed9t m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u201ccao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n\u201d. Fed v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Anh nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00ean ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u, nh\u01b0 Khu v\u1ef1c Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

6. Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n: Ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t dai d\u1eb3ng v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, b\u1ea3o to\u00e0n v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd38K\u00eanh thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh (Fixed Income):<\/strong> Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean \u01b0u ti\u00ean gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n. Ch\u1ee9ng ch\u1ec9 ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi ho\u1eb7c ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 3\u20136 th\u00e1ng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 v\u1eeba b\u1ea3o to\u00e0n s\u1ee9c mua, v\u1eeba thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u2013 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 qu\u1ef9 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i \u2013 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u1ed1i \u01b0u \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t r\u1ee7i ro v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 cao h\u01a1n khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ecf s\u1ebd t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu s\u1ee9c mua tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. D\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea3o n\u1ee3 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt khi\u1ebfn r\u1ee7i ro v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e1ng b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd38C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc: <\/strong>D\u00f9 Vi\u1ec7t Nam ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP v\u1eabn gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean 10%, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng quy\u1ebft li\u1ec7t c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi ch\u1ea5t x\u00fac t\u00e1c c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u t\u1eeb kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u00e2ng h\u1ea1ng l\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i FTSE v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2026 t\u1ea1o n\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc. Theo \u0111\u00f3, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn d\u00e0n tr\u1ea3i sang c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc, \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1eefng v\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd38M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1ng quan t\u00e2m trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m:<\/p>\n

(i) C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t (Cash-Rich Stocks): L\u00e0 nh\u1eefng doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec1n cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi n\u1ee3 vay, \u00edt ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gia t\u0103ng thu nh\u1eadp t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>\n

(ii) C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c cao v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh (High-and-Stable Dividend Yield Stock): Ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi d\u00f2ng thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng.<\/p>\n

(iii) C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u00e0nh c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn (Leading Stocks with Attractive Valuation): L\u00e0 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n, c\u00f3 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o sang gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n, qua \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

V\u00f5 Ho\u00e0ng Long – Ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, PHFM<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u1ea0M PH\u00c1T QUAY TR\u1ede L\u1ea0I, CH\u00cdNH S\u00c1CH PH\u00c2N HO\u00c1 – \u0110\u1ecaNH H\u01af\u1edaNG CHO CH\u1eb6NG \u0110\u01af\u1edcNG PH\u00cdA TR\u01af\u1edaC 1. Nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 xoay quanh chi ph\u00ed sinh ho\u1ea1t B\u1ee9c tranh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u trong qu\u00fd I\/2026 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t chi ph\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":16243,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[103,182,107],"tags":[175,173,174,176,177,178],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16088"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16088"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16088\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16258,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16088\/revisions\/16258"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}