{"id":15966,"date":"2026-04-24T15:55:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T08:55:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/?p=15966"},"modified":"2026-04-24T15:55:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T08:55:18","slug":"investing-in-a-k-shaped-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/investing-in-a-k-shaped-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0110\u1ea6U T\u01af TRONG M\u00d4I TR\u01af\u1edcNG KINH T\u1ebe CH\u1eee “K”"},"content":{"rendered":"\"\"<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea6U T\u01af TRONG M\u00d4I TR\u01af\u1edcNG KINH T\u1ebe CH\u1eee “K”<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang ghi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m, kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb th\u1ebf d\u1eabn d\u1eaft trong khu v\u1ef1c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd tr\u00ean c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u0129 m\u00f4 ch\u01b0a chuy\u1ec3n h\u00f3a t\u01b0\u01a1ng x\u1ee9ng th\u00e0nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 cho c\u00e1c t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp d\u00e2n c\u01b0. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ‘S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i h\u00ecnh ch\u1eef K (K-shaped Recovery) – m\u1ed9t\u00a0hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9, Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, Ch\u00e2u \u00c1, n\u01a1i s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

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Thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef ‘S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i h\u00ecnh ch\u1eef K\u201d l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 h\u1eadu COVID, \u0111\u1ec3 di\u1ec5n t\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh, khu v\u1ef1c trong m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 trong s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea5y l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u01b0\u1edbc d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c th\u00ec ch\u1ec9 \u0111i ngang y\u1ebfu \u1edbt. Ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh, ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0o ch\u1ec9 \u0111i ngang l\u1ea1i ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh t\u1ea1i t\u1eebng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00f3i ri\u00eang v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi n\u00f3i chung. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 du l\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ch\u1eef K \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 g\u00f3i g\u1ecdn trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh sau d\u1ecbch m\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111ang tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n mang t\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, b\u1ee9c tranh s\u00e1ng t\u1ed1i \u0111\u00e3 r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ban \u0111\u1ea7u. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u00f4ng l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 AI. \u0110i\u1ec3m chung hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn d\u00e2n s\u1ed1, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0y \u0111ang ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gi\u00e0u l\u00ean v\u00e0 \u201cl\u0103n c\u1ea7u tuy\u1ebft\u201d m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y trong khi s\u1ed1 c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i k\u00e9m may m\u1eafn h\u01a1n ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh trong chi ph\u00ed sinh ho\u1ea1t, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n

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C\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1eef K c\u0169ng c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u0111ang hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u01a1n c\u1eed c\u00f3 2 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt khi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch cho hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1eabn d\u1eaft b\u1edfi kh\u1ed1i FDI v\u00e0 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u201cs\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e0n”:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u201cng\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng\u201d c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump (2\/4\/2025), Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1p c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf cao l\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c. C\u0169ng tr\u00f9ng h\u1ee3p th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y, t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i Doanh nghi\u1ec7p FDI t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 4.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u00ecn qua bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2026, kh\u00f4ng kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfm t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, \u0111i\u1ec7n tho\u1ea1i. \u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t sau \u201cng\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng\u201d cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng ra kh\u1ecfi Trung Qu\u1ed1c (China +1). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn cho s\u1ef1 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd trong xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u1ea1i ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu n\u1eb1m trong tay c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p FDI, trong khi \u1edf ph\u1ea7n ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c, th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m, d\u1ec7t may, g\u1ed7,\u2026 C\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh ngh\u1ec1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecbu s\u1ef1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c sau c\u00fa s\u1ed1c thu\u1ebf quan, s\u1ef1 ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Theo C\u01a1 quan th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea qu\u1ed1c gia, t\u00ednh chung qu\u00fd 1\/2026, kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u0103ng 19.1% y\/y. Trong \u0111\u00f3, Khu v\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1t 24,47 t\u1ef7 USD, gi\u1ea3m 16,6%, chi\u1ebfm 19,9% t\u1ed5ng kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u; khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i (k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4) \u0111\u1ea1t 98,46 t\u1ef7 USD, t\u0103ng 33,3%, chi\u1ebfm 80,1%.<\/p>\n

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Theo T\u1ed5ng c\u1ee5c Thu\u1ebf (GSO), m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ebfn 96.5% s\u1ed1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p, kh\u1ed1i Kinh t\u1ebf t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p 51.7% v\u00e0o GDP trong n\u0103m 2025 (18.7% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Doanh nghi\u1ec7p FDI, 20.3% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi kh\u1ed1i Kinh t\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc). C\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p trong kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eeba v\u00e0 nh\u1ecf (SME) v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 nh\u00e2n l\u1ef1c, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 trong 1 n\u0103m qua \u0111ang g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 c\u00e1c quy \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1edbi v\u1ec1 thu\u1ebf. Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u0169ng \u0111ang t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba l\u1edbn, hay c\u00f2n g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u201cs\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e0n\u201d, ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ea1nh nh\u1eb1m t\u0103ng t\u00ednh c\u1ea1nh tranh qu\u1ed1c gia, gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp c\u0169ng g\u00e2y ra c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p SME trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Kh\u00f4ng kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f4ng m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng khi s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m \u201cs\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e0n\u201d ch\u01b0a t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 lan t\u1ecfa v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111ang n\u1eb1m trong tay c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m FDI.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 xoay quanh chi ph\u00ed sinh ho\u1ea1t:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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M\u1ed9t nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n n\u1eefa khi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang t\u00f4i tin r\u1eb1ng hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u201cch\u1eef K\u201d \u0111ang th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 di\u1ec5n ra ng\u1ea7m ph\u00eda d\u01b0\u1edbi nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea5y kh\u00edch l\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf chung l\u00e0 do kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t trong c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn<\/strong> th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 b\u1edfi GSO. Nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o b\u1ea3ng tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n CPI c\u1ee7a GSO \u1edf ph\u00eda tr\u00ean, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y (1) H\u00e0ng \u0103n v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0103n u\u1ed1ng chi\u1ebfm t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong r\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u00ednh CPI – 33.56% (2) Nh\u00e0 \u1edf, \u0111i\u1ec7n, n\u01b0\u1edbc, ch\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1t v\u00e0 v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gom chung l\u1ea1i 1 kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ee5c v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 chi\u1ebfm 18.82% trong r\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a (3) Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n chia r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng CPI cho khu v\u1ef1c n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n v\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac chi ti\u00eau t\u1ea1i n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n v\u00e0 th\u00e0nh th\u1ecb c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t l\u1edbn, khi th\u00e0nh th\u1ecb thi\u00ean v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5, nh\u00e0 \u1edf trong khi \u1edf n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n s\u1ebd thi\u00ean v\u1ec1 l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u01a1n khi\u1ebfn ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u1edf 2 khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y s\u1ebd c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed nh\u00e0 \u1edf hay l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c g\u1ed9p chung Nh\u00e0 \u1edf, \u0111i\u1ec7n, n\u01b0\u1edbc, ch\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1t v\u00e0 v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng l\u00e0m m\u1edd \u0111i \u00e1p l\u1ef1c nh\u00e0 \u1edf v\u00ec c\u1ed9ng chung v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ti\u1ec7n \u00edch. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 18.82% l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 nh\u1ecf<\/strong> v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh vi\u1ec7c chi ph\u00ed nh\u00e0 \u1edf, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb m\u1edbi l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3n t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m nh\u1ea5t trong ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh (th\u01b0\u1eddng chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 30 \u2013 40% t\u1ed5ng chi ti\u00eau h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng) (\u1edf M\u1ef9, nh\u00f3m \u201cshelter\u201d chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi 30% r\u1ed5 CPI,\u2026). M\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch cho s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u1edf M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u201cnh\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu t\u00ednh quy \u0111\u1ed5i\u201d (imputed rent), ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e1 thu\u00ea t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh s\u1edf h\u1eefu v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh ng\u00f4i nh\u00e0 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh chi ph\u00ed c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng thu\u00ea nh\u00e0.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c chi ph\u00ed s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 ti\u1ec1n thu\u00ea nh\u00e0 ho\u1eb7c kh\u1ea5u hao t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n nh\u00e0 \u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o gi\u1ecf h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a CPI m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed s\u1edf h\u1eefu nh\u00e0 \u1edf nh\u01b0 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea5t, gi\u00e1 c\u0103n h\u1ed9 hay chi ph\u00ed l\u00e3i vay khi mua nh\u00e0. \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi gi\u00fap \u00edch v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u cho thu\u00ea c\u00f2n ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7, ch\u01b0a c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt v\u00e0 ch\u01b0a tin c\u1eady \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u00fap tr\u00e1nh s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 g\u00e2y nhi\u1ec5u d\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI. Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u00c1 \u0110\u00f4ng n\u1eb7ng t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng \u201can c\u01b0 l\u1eadp nghi\u1ec7p\u201d, h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh coi ng\u00f4i nh\u00e0 l\u00e0 di s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 t\u00e2m huy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m l\u1ec7ch \u0111i ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf chi ph\u00ed sinh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ee7a h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh g\u00e1nh ph\u1ea3i (gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0\/thu nh\u1eadp t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c ngh\u1eb9t th\u1edf nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi – 27.3x).<\/p>\n

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Quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 t\u1ea1i Iran \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai Brent c\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ea1t 118 USD\/th\u00f9ng (so v\u1edbi 61 USD\/th\u00f9ng v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025), g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c l\u00ean trong th\u00e1ng 3, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Giao th\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 12.85%, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0m CPI chung t\u0103ng 1.28 \u0111i\u1ec3m %. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e2y m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u cho \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1ec1 sau.<\/p>\n

Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a IMF (2021) ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u t\u1ea1i 190 qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u1ec9 ra ba ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m: (1) H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n (nh\u01b0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam) th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n ban \u0111\u1ea7u do c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ki\u1ec1m gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i dai d\u1eb3ng v\u00e0 lan t\u1ecfa r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn; (2) Vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 thay v\u00ec gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t; v\u00e0 (3) T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn gi\u00e1 mang t\u00ednh l\u0169y ti\u1ebfn nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 x\u00f3i m\u00f2n s\u1ee9c mua s\u1ebd k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u1ed9 ngh\u00e8o t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n

Theo Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Thanh to\u00e1n Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (BIS) (2025), c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung t\u1eeb nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn d\u00e0i nh\u01b0ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ee9t g\u00e3y ngu\u1ed3n cung ho\u1eb7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean (LNG) t\u1ea1o ra t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c l\u00ean chu\u1ed7i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00f4ng qua chi ph\u00ed ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n (urea, amoniac). H\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t ‘l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p’ (second-round effects), g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00ean ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 CPI.<\/p>\n

H\u00e0ng \u0103n v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0103n u\u1ed1ng chi\u1ebfm t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong r\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u00ednh CPI – 33.56% v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cao h\u01a1n trong r\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh c\u00f3 ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. Kh\u00f4ng kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n y\u1ebfu th\u1ebf, \u0111ang g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi thua cu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u1ecb b\u1ecf l\u1ea1i ph\u00eda sau trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, chi ph\u00ed sinh ho\u1ea1t gia t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

H\u00c0M \u00dd \u0110\u1ea6U T\u01af:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i ch\u1eef K c\u1ea7n nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng cao, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng di\u1ec5n ra \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1edbp t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. Trong \u0111\u00f3, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1edbp t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecdi l\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e0ng s\u1edbm s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng t\u1ed1t trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00ec th\u1ebf s\u1ebd t\u1ecf ra v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u1edf \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n y\u00eau c\u1ea7u ban \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n h\u1eb3n, gi\u00fap cho b\u1ea1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u nhanh nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00ean l\u00e0m kim ch\u1ec9 nam trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

1. Nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u: bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m, l\u00e0m n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho n\u1ed9i l\u1ef1c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edbi nh\u01b0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng, v\u00e2t li\u1ec7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng, logistics \u0111i\u1ec7n, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, an ninh qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng, vi\u1ec5n th\u00f4ng. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean ch\u1ecdn c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u00e0nh v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1ef1c. Nh\u00f3m d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u n\u00e0y nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd d\u1eabn d\u1eaft t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean.<\/p>\n

2. Nh\u00f3m ng\u00e0nh thu\u1ed9c nh\u00e1nh d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u1ee7a ch\u1eef \u201cK\u201d: \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 lan t\u1ecfa t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1eafp c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u. S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0y ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi ph\u1ea3i ph\u00e1t huy t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (\u01b0u \u0111\u00e3i thu\u1ebf, an sinh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i).<\/p>\n

Nguy\u1ec5n Minh Tr\u00ed – Ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, PHFM<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0110\u1ea6U T\u01af TRONG M\u00d4I TR\u01af\u1edcNG KINH T\u1ebe CH\u1eee “K” Kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang ghi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m, kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb th\u1ebf d\u1eabn d\u1eaft trong khu v\u1ef1c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd tr\u00ean c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u0129 m\u00f4 ch\u01b0a chuy\u1ec3n h\u00f3a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":16015,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[103,107],"tags":[175,173,174,176,177,178],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15966"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15966"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15966\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16016,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15966\/revisions\/16016"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.phfm.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}